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Question 18

Why did Dutch and European climate policymakers choose the long-term target of limiting climate change to a maximum, average global temperature increase of 2 degree Celsius?

Answer

In 1992, the international climate change treaty (UNFCCC) was signed in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil). Its main objective was to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, in order to protect food production, biodiversity and sustainable economic development. The interferences that were labelled as ‘dangerous’, actually, were social choices, with scientific knowledge concerning the risks playing an important role. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), the most important international scientific platform for assessing the state of climate research, collates this knowledge and publishes periodic reports on its analyses. The third IPCC assessment report (published in 2001) estimated that the temperature increase by the end of this century, without climate policy, would be between 1.5 and 6 °C, depending on the socio-economic developments and the uncertainties in the models used.

According to the IPCC, the temperature on earth has risen by 0.6 to 0.7 °C since the preindustrial era. The effects thereof are already visible in different places around the world, including the Netherlands. Studies indicate that the consequences of climate change will increase with further temperature increases. Although there are still considerable uncertainties, the expectation is that, initially, sensitive ecosystems (such as coral reefs) or local systems (food supply) could be negatively affected. Further temperature increase is likely to lead to larger impacts, including the melting of Arctic sea ice and parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet, with an associated significant rise in sea level, negative influences on worldwide food production, or the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (the large-scale ocean circulation also referred to as the ‘global ocean conveyor belt’).

Studies show that the greatest negative effects of climate change are to be expected in developing countries. These countries are the most vulnerable to climate change due to their high dependence on climate-sensitive economic sectors, such as agriculture, the lack of facilities and structures to anticipate extreme weather situations, and the limited resilience as a result of low income levels.
Based partly on such insights, the Netherlands and the EU have chosen to aim at limiting the average temperature increase on earth to a maximum of 2 °C, compared to the pre-industrial level. This objective should be seen as a political decision, based on the risks of climate change and the opportunities for preventing climate change. Since 1996, this objective has formed the cornerstone of climate policy undertaken by the EU and its Member States and, in 2005, was reconfirmed by the EU government leaders. This objective, therefore, has also been selected as a starting point for several analyses conducted by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, that show which opportunities are available to ensure that the 2 °C objective is met, both worldwide and at the regional level, as well as the costs and benefits of such a policy.

More information:

• Meeting the 2 degree target. From climate objective to emission reduction measures

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