Global energy futures: An integrated perspective with the TIME-model
In a previous report the five submodels of the energy model were described in detail. Here, a number of applications with the (stand-alone) TIME model are presented. In this report the calibration of the world version for the period 1900-1990 is described.
Given the exogenous drivers like population size and economic activities, the energy demand, fuel mix, fuel prices, energy investments and CO2 emissions are calculated and compared with observed values. Assumptions to be made for deriving a suitable fit with the observed values were discussed as well as the methodology as used for scenario construction, uncertainties and assumptions on structural change, energy efficiency improvements, long-term supply cost curves of fossil fuel resources and technology in energy supply options.
An application of the scenario methodology is discussed where a reference scenario is constructed based on the IS92a scenario of the IPCC. Furthermore, some scenarios from other institutions are investigated by assessing their outcomes in terms of the underlying assumptions. Next subjects described are futures according to alternative perspectives or world views ; some results of optimised mitigation strategies using the CYCLES module of TARGETS to assess the impacts of scenarios ; the role of technological change in meeting climate change policy targets.
|Author(s)||Vries HJM de ; Janssen MA|