Industrial ecology and integrated assessment

This chapter describes the background and modeling approaches used in simple climate models (SCMs) (Harvey et al. 1997). In general, SCMs are the simplified models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide projections of the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, global mean temperature and sea-level change response using as input emissions scenarios describing the future developments in the emissions of greenhouse gases. SCMs are computationally more efficient than more complex, computationally expensive three-dimensional models such as atmosphere– ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). SCMs are therefore particularly suitable for multiple scenario studies, uncertainty assessments and analysis of feedbacks. The SCM approach is illustrated by applying one such model, meta-IMAGE (den Elzen 1998), to uncertainty analysis.