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Global developments largely determine rural Europe's future

According to the results of Eururalis 2.0, the future of Europe’s rural areas will largely be shaped by more or less autonomous global driving forces. Especially the development of (global) demography and macro economic growth outline the trends for rural Europe. These driving forces set the demand for food and fuel and will shape the opportunities and threats in EU regions. EU policies may not completely halt or reverse global trends, but can diminish the negative effects and anticipate future opportunities. EU policies on CAP and bio-energy do make a difference, particularly to issues such as farm income, farm structure and agricultural abandonment.  

Changing role of farming

Farming is of little importance to the total economy in the EU15 (old Member States). In the EU12 (new Member States) its significance to the economy is likely to decline rapidly in all scenarios towards the level of the EU15, leading to a substantial decrease in agricultural employment. The role of farming will remain important with regard to land use, taking up nearly 50 percent of the total land surface. However, the marginal areas in the EU15, in particular, are likely to be affected by land abandonment. Although policies will probably not be able to reverse this process, more support to the CAP and stimulation of bioenergy crops will reduce the amount of abandoned land by more than 50%. 

The potentially major impact of bioenergy policy in Europe

Substantial subsidies are necessary to reach the 5.75% fuel consumption target in 2010. The impact of a policy to reach the 5.75% target, will be extensive. For the EU27, about 4% of the land in total and about 8% of the agricultural land will be used to grow first generation bioenergy crops. The biofuel directive leads to a relatively large production of bioenergy crops in Brazil, which will lead to higher farm incomes, increased land use and related negative implications for biodiversity in Brazil.

Need for policy coherence on different scales

There is an important role for policy to enhance sustainable development in rural Europe on at least three scale levels. On the global level, climate change and trade liberalisation require attention. On the EU27 and the national level, the future of rural areas in relation to socio-economic concerns and sustainable land management should be discussed. The CAP and other structural funds are here  the important EU policies. On the regional level, the opportunities and threats related to the higher scales should be addressed with an appropriate and fitting rural development strategy. Understanding the interactions and trade-offs of policy on different temporal and spatial scales is essential to good governance.

Launch of interactive tool on the future of Europe’s rural areas

These results were obtained with EURuralis 2.0, a tool to explore the future of Europe's rural areas. EURuralis has been developed by a consortium of research institutes consisting of Alterra, LEI, Wageningen University and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. Eururalis 2.0 links global driving forces such as demography, technological development and macro economic growth with the specific characteristics of rural regions for all regions within the EU27. New is the implementation of strategic policy options. Eururalis 2.0 assesses the integrated impact of EU policy concerning the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the use of biofuels.

More information

• EURuralis website
• The future of rural Europe: policy book with reflection on EURuralis results
• Background document EURuralis 2.0