The baseline and policy packages impact the various regional groups in different ways. This section shows important differences and similarities, which are important in appreciating the case for international collaboration.

Overview by theme

Climate

The climate policy component in the policy packages on which the table is based, is the US$25 per ton carbon tax. As discussed in the Outlook report, this is not enough to mitigate the increase in radiative forcing. Mitigating the increase will require measures on the scale of the 450ppm multigas stabilisation case.

Atmosphere

The impact of air pollution on human health is reduced under the policy packages –from amber to green in OECD regions and from red to amber, elsewhere. In many parts of the world outside OECD, air pollution policies have to row against the tide of urbanisation and ageing when attempting to effectively reduce health impacts. In Eastern Europe, Central Asia, Other Latin America and Africa, little difference is visible between the baseline and policy packages. However, this is only a matter of time: the policy simulations project decreasing emissions in those regions, later this century. 

From the global perspective of the Outlook, the development of air pollution policies and their impact over this century begins to resemble that of climate policies – which makes it more attractive to study co-benefits.

Nutrient loading on fresh water

Typical of non-OECD regions, the improvements in management of sewage are not enough to keep up with the increased access to sanitation and connection to sewerage. This problem is foreseeable for the baseline but also in the case of acceleration of environmental policies. In fact, for the regions Other Asia and Africa, a marked increase of the nutrient load is projected precisely under the conditions of  a global environmental policy package. At the same time, non-point emissions from agriculture remain the dominant source of nutrient loading on freshwater.  

Terrestrial biodiversity

The policy packages do not foresee specific policies aimed at protecting biodiversity, like measures to keep agriculture compact; expansion and interconnection of protected areas; or revenue-sharing arranagements of protected areas in low-income countries. Therefore, no change is anticipated in the rate of decrease of terrestrial biodiversity.

Land use

Under the no new policies baseline, human land use increases in most regions. This is, in part, due to the urban sprawl and conversion of landscapes everywhere, but mainly because of agricultural land use. The two policy packages involving BRIC anticipate an even faster expansion of land use in regions such as Brazil and Other Latin America. This is due to liberalisation of agricultural production and trade, causing the production to increase with a preference for low-income countries where land is cheap. The development in North America shows by and large the mirror image.

Fresh water scarcity

Under the no new policy conditions, water stress is projected to increase strongly in precisely those regional clusters that are vulnerable to this additional strain. The policy packages influence this projection only marginally, indirectly through changes in size and agricultural location and, eventually, through some mitigation of climate change. Therefore, without policies that address inefficient water use head-on, especially in agriculture, the regional pattern of deteriorating water stress will develop unchecked.

Forests

The overall pattern of loss of original forest is driven by agricultural developments. Because of this, the policy packages involving BRIC feature a red traffic light for Brazil. Note that this is based on projections from an ecological point of view – not the carbon cycle. The indicator used is the area of mature forest which has not been harvested by clear-cutting since 2000. It does not consider recent re-growth or plantation.

Legend table components

 

• Complete synopsis table

More information

• OECD Environmental Outlook: Process of deriving the ‘traffic lights’ in the table.  
• OECD Environmental Outlook: The pattern across issues and regions.          

 

• OECD Environmental Outlook: Global results
• Back to OECD Environmental Outlook