Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios
Even the most stringent of climate policies will not be able to prevent global warming entirely, according to a new analysis. In addition to efforts to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, D.P. van Vuuren (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) and colleagues assert that societies should also consider strategies for adapting to higher global temperatures.
Adaptation to future climate change
The researchers’ analysis examines a wide range of climate policy scenarios from different emission models and shows that, in virtually all of these scenarios, the average surface temperature rise will be reduced, but not avoided. The ranges of 21st century climate change published so far by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change did not take into account efforts to reduce climate change. In this study, the researchers projected the effects of multiple mitigation strategies using two climate models and taking into account uncertainties in the climate system and carbon cycle. The analysis reports an average minimum warming by the year 2100 of 1.4 degrees Celsius from baseline levels in 1990, for the most stringent emission reduction scenarios. While the minimum temperature rise is significantly less than that projected without emission mitigation policies, it is higher than previous reports that focused on climate inertia alone.
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|Author(s)||D. P. Van Vuuren, M. Meinshausen, G. K. Plattner. F. Joos, K.M. Strassmann, S.J. Smith, T.M.L. Wigley, S.C.B. Raper, K. Riahi, F. de la Chesnaye, et al.|
|Publication||Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)|