Likelihood of meeting the EU limit values for NO2 and PM10 concentrations in the Netherlands
In 2007, the European limit values for annual average NO2 concentration and for daily average PM10 concentration have been exceeded along motorways and city streets in the Netherlands. The total length for which the exceedance is likely is about 300 km for NO2 concentration and about 75 km for PM10 concentration. In addition, the limit values were ‘about as likely as not’ exceeded for NO2 along 1000 km of motorways and city streets and for PM10 along 1600 km.
PM10 and NO2 concentrations must be below the limit values everywhere in Europe, ultimately by 2011 and 2015, respectively. Since estimates of future local concentrations have an uncertainty of about 15–20%, no absolute statements can be made whether concentrations will be below the limit values within the specified time. Model calculations accounting for the effects of current and proposed national and European legislation, and using average meteorology for large-scale and local traffic contributions show strong decreases in likely limit value exceedances in the Netherlands. However, limit value exceedances are still possible (chance >33%) along about 350 km for PM10 by 2011, and about 150 km for NO2, by 2015.
These possible exceedances depend not only on the uncertainties and on national and European policies and their effectiveness, but also on contributions by specific additional local measures. The Netherlands Government has proposed a plan, which includes local measures to meet the limit values everywhere, in time. Although not assessed here due to their specific character, such local measures could reduce exceedances. As the effects of local measures and estimates of concentrations are uncertain, continuous monitoring – possibly together with additional measures – will be needed to adhere to the limit values.
|Author(s)||Velders GJM ; Diederen HSMA|
|Publication||Atmos Environ 2009; 43(19):3060-3069|